An Embarrassment of Riches. The upcoming fall season may be reflective of 2013 in general. Few years have boasted such a welter of promising material. As foreign language entries such as Amour and A Separation continue to break into the mainstream awards categories (especially screenplay and acting), the list of viable options facing Academy voters can only grow. The Weinstein Company folks have their finger on the Oscar pulse with hits including previous Best Picture smashes The King's Speech and The Artist.

Before examining the acting and picture categories, it's important to remember that loyalties regarding odds-on favourites can change in the blink of an eye. For instance, Lincoln only managed to secure two statuettes despite a carefully mounted campaign and a record number of nominations for 2012.

This brings me to another point: can a long shot or dark horse steal the show this time? Paul Haggis' Crash has shown the way forward. Maybe it's time for a similar destiny to await the next crop of Best Picture hopefuls.

Best Supporting Actress:

Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Carey Mulligan (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Margo Martindale (August: Osage County)
Cameron Diaz (The Counsellor)
Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)

Comments: Let me go out on a limb here and say that one person probably has Best Supporting Actress in the bag. Oprah Winfrey's turn as Gloria Gaines in Lee Daniels' The Butler contains a number of significant advantages:

1) There's plenty of good will left over from Winfrey's Oscar nominated work in The Color Purple. This makes her extremely overdue for recognition.

2) She's a household personality with a built-in audience of millions, who would love to see her triumph.

Streep has the Midas touch when it comes to being nominated. However, I feel someone else might break into the five. Diaz could be that surprise. With four Golden Globe nominations and a Bafta nod behind her, it will be fascinating to observe the strategies undertaken by this actress and her peers.

At the risk of sounding out of touch, I feel a milestone was reached by Michelle Williams in 2013. Normally, I find her very cold and distance-inducing. However, the warmth she brought to Oz: The Great and Powerful ignited my faith in her acting abilities. I could easily see myself joining the Michelle Williams Fan Club if the good work continues. A nomination is probably out of the question, however, one can always dream...

Best Supporting Actor:

John Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Harrison Ford (42)
Matthew McConaughey (Mud)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Brad Pitt (The Counselor)*
Daniel Bruhl (Rush)

Comments: At this moment in time, Best Supporting Actor looks like a free-for-all. I would love to see John Goodman in the running. He got snubbed for Best Actor (The Babe, 1992) and probably has as much chance as Harrison Ford at getting noticed.

Could Ian McKellen get some overdue love i.e. his third Oscar nomination for playing the quintessential Gandalf in The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug? I would certainly celebrate the moment here in Wales if that happened.

* Pitt could be the potential spoiler of the season after his huge loss in 2011. Some felt his part as Billy Beane in Moneyball was the best performance of his career. Perhaps the Academy will remember his achievements.

Best Actress:

Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)
Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)

Comments: So far, the trailer indicates a strong presence from Emma Thompson in Saving Mr. Banks. This film chronicles Walt Disney's struggle to make Mary Poppins whilst in the company of the original author, P.L. Travers (played by Thompson). If Oscar loves her, she might be adding a third statuette to the mantelpiece, following her success in adapting Sense and Sensibility and a Best Actress trophy for Howard's End.

Blanchett has an avalanche of support, playing the title character in Woody Allen's latest. Amy Adams earned four recent nods for supporting roles, but as yet has failed to garner a lead actress nomination. Critics and prognosticators want Delpy and Gerwig to be taken more seriously. I believe only one of them will be present at the final awards gathering.

As the various critic groups assign their preferences, expect some early favourites to miss out as well as an unforeseen dark horse to suddenly make a statement. Kate Winslet in Labor Day maybe?

 Best Actor:

Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Robert Redford (All Is Lost)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)

Comments: I viewed the trailer for Dallas Buyers Club with some anticipation. I can only hope the best moments weren't given away because beyond the lead star's incredible weight loss (he shrunk down to 135Ibs), there's precious little Oscar bait to be found in my opinion. Themes of AIDS and making a difference have been ground-breaking before - - see Philadelphia. Will expectations be too high? Although my appreciation for McConaughey's work has been limited to roles in Edtv, U-571 and Reign of Fire, I don't think of him as an Oscar worthy talent in any way, shape or form.

On the other hand, Redford has little left to prove. He built a career on the basis of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, The Sting and Jeremiah Johnson, among many others. He has the benefit of an actor's showcase with no co-stars to take the attention away from him. At this stage, he has to be considered a threat if early raves are anything to go by.

Best Picture:

The Place Beyond the Pines
All Is Lost
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Captain Phillips
Before Midnight
Lee Daniels' The Butler
Foxcatcher
Disconnect

Comments: I have high hopes for Tom Hanks and Robert Redford. The latter could score big with his acting solo. All Is Lost feels like a more formidable adversary than people realize. It has the strong concept coupled with a gripping trailer (never a bad thing). Writer/director J.C. Chandor surpassed my expectations with his debut feature Margin Call. He seems to be going in the opposite direction with his new film. Where the former was dialogue-driven, All Is Lost has the feel of pure visual storytelling. Redford has the screen to himself plus dialogue is apparently kept to a minimum. I cannot wait!

The Coen Brothers will likely try their luck in the form of Inside Llewyn Davis. Their film follows a folk singer attempting to find success in the early 1960s. The trailer appears to hold back a lot of information. This could go either way for the picture.

I'm already on-board for Captain Phillips, its October release date (in the UK) cannot come around fast enough. The trailer seems Oscar worthy in and of itself. Somali pirates hijack an American cargo ship. This Paul Greengrass thriller has roots in a story that really happened. What's not to love?

Can The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug win over critics and capture the love of the Academy like The Lord of the Rings trilogy? Maybe Peter Jackson's films have too many accolades already.

As for pictures which made an impact in the first half of 2013, expect Before Midnight, Mud and The Place Beyond the Pines to be remembered. A couple of them may lose some staying power given their early release dates. However, DVDs and screeners can help to keep these efforts alive in the Academy's collective consciousness.

I'm completely behind Derek Cianfrance's The Place Beyond the Pines in the categories below. 

• Best Picture
• Best Director
• Best Original Screenplay
• Best Film Editing

If I had to choose a thespian from the film to nominate, it would probably be Bradley Cooper. However, given the strong ensemble nature of this offering, I'm of a mind that Best Picture covers all the bases. Besides, choosing Cooper shows a bit too much favoritism. The only sure thing may be Original Screenplay, mostly because of the release date issue. It will be up to individual Academy members to seek out this gem.

A dark horse could be Blue Is the Warmest Color. The title refers to Emma (Lea Seydoux) and her hair style. She falls for Adele (played by Adele Exarchopoulos) and the film examines every facet of their relationship. It's a high priority on my list of films to see.

Best Director remains the biggest guessing game of all. However, look for David O. Russell (American Hustle), Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips) and Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) to gain significant momentum if reviews and audience expectations are fulfilled.