Predicting the Oscar winners at the 83rd Academy Awards Ceremony should be an easy task, for there are so many “sure-things” entered into the current race. In fact, this year’s Oscar show  seems almost redundant. Awards have already been given out at the Golden Globes and by the Screen Actors Guild as well as by groups of film critics too numerous to mention -- and with a surprising consensus. I have to confess I’m out of step with that consensus in many categories and feel very disappointed because some of my favorite 2010 films and performances were snubbed in the nomination process. With ten movies instead of five receiving nominations, how could such crowd pleasers as Secretariat, Burlesque, Alice in Wonderland, and The Other Guys be ignored? Only three of my top ten films -- The Fighter, Toy Story 3, and True Grit -- made the cut. Perhaps my taste is too low brow, but I enjoy movies primarily for their entertainment value – and not for scenes showing someone cutting off their own arm or slowly going insane (127 Hours and Black Swan, I’m talking to you!).

And not to see Mark Wahlberg nominated for any of his terrific performances last year really upsets me. Clearly, in terms of a body of film work, the year 2010 belonged to Wahlberg. His understated, sensitive and physically demanding acting in The Fighter was the third victory for him. With each of his outings in 2010, he brought to life an unforgettable screen character. In Date Night, we believed Wahlberg as shirtless eye-candy for Tina Fey. Next, while watching The Other Guys we laughed until it hurt at his wonderful parody of the angry sergeant he played in The Departed. The Fighter gives Wahlberg a perfect acting trifecta. He comes across as a real person facing a crossroads who must decide what’s the right thing to do. At every step of the way, he makes us want things to turn out well for the boxer he portrays. But no Oscar nomination? Bummer.    

 Okay, glad that’s off my chest. Let the prognostications begin! As usual, my predictions concern Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: 127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech,  The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone

My Prediction: The King’s Speech and The Social Network -- tie

My Preference: The Fighter

Comments: I predict a tie each year, and maybe this one will really happen! Last December, I was certain The Social Network would win Best Picture, but in the last few weeks The King’s Speech has been heating up the race, so I think it’s a toss-up now between those two flicks. Personally, I found The Fighter to be the best film of 2010, and I wish it would win everything. It’s not a typical boxing movie. Instead, the film is a fascinating depiction of family relations and the way loved ones can hurt the people they care about the most. Plus stars Mark Wahlberg, Christian Bale, Amy Adams, and Melissa Leo deliver knock-out performances here. I think The Fighter represents ensemble acting at its finest. And everything seems so REAL in this movie. No one is caught “acting” -- they’re all “being.” I wish I could say the same thing for The King’s Speech and The Social Network. On a positive note, isn’t it a treat to see the wonderful Toy Story 3 on this Best Picture list as well as being nominated as Best Animated Feature (which it will surely win)? (WINNER: THE KING'S SPEECH)

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech), David O. Russell (The Fighter), David Fincher (The Social Network), Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan) Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)

My Prediction: David Fincher

My Preference: David O. Russell

Comments: Both Davids should listen carefully when the “Oscar for Best Director” is announced. Otherwise it might be embarrassing for one of them. In 1933, Frank Capra (Lady for a Day) and Frank Lloyd (Cavalcade) were nominated in this category. “Come on up, Frank!” said presenter Will Rogers. Capra was half way to the stage when he saw Lloyd already holding the golden statuette. “It was a long and humiliating walk back to my seat,” Capra confessed.  (WINNER: TOM HOOPER)   

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), Colin Firth (The King’s Speech), James Franco (127 Hours)

My Prediction:  Colin Firth

My Preference:  Jeff Bridges

Comments: With Mark Wahlberg out of contention here, it would be fun to see Jeff Bridges pick up a mate for last year’s Oscar. Bridges delivers a much better performance as the boozy Rooster Cogburn than he did as the boozy country singer in Crazy Heart, so that ought to count for something. Still, I think Colin Firth has a lock on winning in this category, for he played a very difficult role as a reluctant king conquering a stammer at a time when radio made speaking to millions of people over the airwaves so important. Although I prefer the elegant Firth in lighter fare like Love Actually, I’m always pleased when one of my favorite actors receives acclaim from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. (WINNER: COLIN FIRTH)     
 
 

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone), Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine) 

My Prediction:  Natalie Portman

My Preference:  Any of the nominees

Comments: Great work by all these actresses! Although Portman is the favorite for her disturbing turn as a ballerina spinning out of control, I can’t help feeling we might be treated to a surprise in this category. Annette Bening has a scene in The Kids Are All Right which could win her the Oscar. It’s one of those Bette Davis type scenes (like the one in The Little Foxes where she watches her hubby die and does nothing to help him) that you can’t help thinking about. Annette is sitting at a dinner table smiling until she figures out that her partner has been having an affair with the host. The camera moves closer and closer to Annette’s face and we see her slowly change her expression to a quiet simmer. Annette was definitely ready for that close-up! It’s brilliant. I wouldn’t be disappointed at all if Annette finally took home an Oscar. She’s been nominated three times before -- and should have won for one of the most scintillating performances ever filmed in Being Julia. Her other nominations were for The Grifters and American Beauty. (WINNER: NATALIE PORTMAN)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Christian Bale (The Fighter), John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech) 

My Prediction:  Christian Bale

My Preference:  Christian Bale

Comments: The practically unrecognizable Bale shines with his brilliant portrayal of a troubled man basking in past glory (“I knocked out Sugar Ray!”). Dicky Eklund, the character Bale plays, may be hard to like, but we can’t help seeing past all his flaws and hoping he will change his ways. If Bale doesn’t win an Oscar for this amazing performance, I’ll be forced to make a citizen’s arrest. (WINNER: CHRISTIAN BALE)  

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Amy Adams (The Fighter), Helena Bonham-Carter (The King’s Speech), Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit), Jackie Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

My Prediction:  Melissa Leo

My Preference:  Melissa Leo

Comment: I’m hoping Adams and Leo don’t split the vote here. Both she and Leo are the most worthy contenders in this category. Adams excels as the tough, sexy barmaid who loves shy boxer Micky Ecklund, even if it means actually fighting for him. But my final vote goes to Leo, as Micky’s mother, for totally convincing us that she’s an iron-fisted matriarch who rules a very big roost in The Fighter. The first confrontation between these two powerful women is one of my favorite 2010 film scenes. (WINNER: MELISSA LEO)     

No matter who wins or loses in the categories above, you’ll find me glued to my television set for the entire 83rd Academy Awards Ceremony. I’m looking forward to James Franco and Anne Hathaway as co-hosts. Franco may not be able to sing and dance like Hugh Jackman, but he has an appealing personality. And Hathaway already displayed her tremendous vocal chops on a previous Academy Awards show. It should be another entertaining Oscar night!

(Article published in The Pueblo Chieftain, February 27, 2011.)