I had a wonderful dream the night before the Oscar® nominations were announced early in February. In my dream, all of the Best Picture nominees were either musicals or comedies. Unfortunately, once again members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences proved their strong preference for serious drama over high quality lighter fare. Even though the list of best movies has been extended to ten this year instead of the usual five, not one outright comedy or musical received a nod. Some viewers might count An Education, A Serious Man, and Up as comedies – but to me they come across as quite serious in spite of a few amusing scenes. “Lighten up, Oscar®!” is my message to the Academy.    

Although disappointed with this sad state of affairs, I’m undaunted in my annual attempt to predict the winners in six key categories -- Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress – so here goes:

BEST PICTURE

Nominees:  Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air.

My Prediction:  Avatar

My Preference: An Education

Comments: Three of the nominated films have a good chance of winning. Avatar, the most expensive movie ever made, earned lots of money and widespread acclaim. Unfortunately, my eyes don’t adjust to 3-D, so I saw the 2-D version, which under-whelmed me – especially the scenes on Pandora. No kidding, folks, that colorful Na’Vi homeland reminded me of the decorations for my high school prom. The Hurt Locker was well received by most movie critics, but I found it too repetitive despite some very suspenseful scenes of bomb defusing in Iraq. Inglourious Basterds boasts a couple of glorious sequences highlighting Quentin Tarantino’s love for the cinema – and yet it’s difficult to watch much of the time, especially when the marvelous Christoph Waltz is not on screen. I’m fairly certain one of those three films will win Best Picture. Still, I wish An Education would end up with the Oscar® in this category.  Although featuring no dazzling special effects or explosions or imaginary World War II events, An Education charms viewers with its fascinating tale of a young girl’s relationship with a suave older man who promises her an exciting world beyond the halls of academia.          

Winner: The Hurt Locker

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), James Cameron (Avatar), Lee Daniels (Precious), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air), Quentin Tarantino (The Inglourious Basterds).

My Prediction: James Cameron

My Preference: Quentin Tarantino

Comments: Buzz has it that James Cameron and Kathryn Bigelow will “duke it out” in this category. They were once married to each other, so they’ve probably “duked it out” before. Much as I would like to see a woman finally win an Oscar® for best directing (only three female directors -- Lina Wertmuller, Jane Campion and Sofia Coppola -- have ever been nominated), I think Bigelow’s ex will take home the Golden Guy as Best Director. Instead of King of the World, Cameron may then proclaim himself Emperor of the Universe. However, I think Quentin Tarantino deserves to win. My reason? He’s my husband’s favorite filmmaker. (You’re welcome, dear.)

Winner: Kathryn Bigelow    

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

My Prediction: Jeff Bridges

My Preference: Morgan Freeman

Comments: With every gesture, movement and line of dialogue, Morgan Freeman captures Nelson Mandela’s dedication to a policy of reconciliation among the races after apartheid in Invictus. In fact, when asked what actor should portray him in a movie, Mandela said, “Morgan Freeman!” Although playing one of his most challenging roles here, this veteran actor succeeds in transforming himself into a believable film version of the remarkable real-life leader. Freeman’s posture, accent and facial expressions make us think we’re watching Mandela himself, not an actor. That’s why I think Freeman is the class of the field in this category. Still, Jeff Bridges, as a boozy down-and-out country singer, seems to be the sentimental favorite here, and I admit he makes the overrated Crazy Heart almost worth seeing.   

Winner:  Jeff Bridges

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabouray Sidibe (Precious), Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

My Prediction: Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep (Tie)

My Preference: Carey Mulligan

Comments: I wanted Sandra Bullock to be nominated for The Proposal instead of The Blind Side, but she’s quite convincing as a no-nonsense yet compassionate woman in the latter film. And Meryl Streep gives an uncanny impersonation of Julia Child in Julie & Julia, so I think it’s a toss-up between these two outstanding actresses.  Of course, never count out the great Helen Mirren, who plays Leo Tolstoy’s wife in The Last Station. Plus newcomer Gabourey Sidibe surprised everyone with her poignant work in Precious. But if I had my way, Carey Mulligan would receive the Oscar® for her brilliant portrayal of a wide-eyed, naïve school girl exposed to a sophisticated new world. It’s a performance I’m eager to watch again when An Education comes out on DVD.   

Winner:  Sandra Bullock   

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

My Prediction: Christoph Waltz

My Preference: Christoph Waltz

Comments: Austrian actor Christoph Waltz delivers the most riveting portrayal of a villain since Anthony Hopkins transformed himself into Hannibal Lecter for Silence of the Lambs. Waltz’s flamboyant turn as a ruthless Nazi Colonel should ensure that Inglorious Basterds earns at least one Oscar®. If Waltz had not been nominated, I would predict a win for Woody Harrelson. He does his best work ever as a cynical soldier assigned to notify next of kin about the death of their loved ones in The Messenger.   

Winner: Christoph Waltz   

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Mo’Nique (Precious)

My Prediction:  Mo’Nique

My Preference: Vera Farmiga

Comments:  For her raw, daring portrayal of an abusive mother who’s been abused herself, Mo’Nique seems a sure bet to win the gold in this category. She’s shocking to watch in Precious -- but never unbelievable. However, I believe Vera Farmiga’s more low-key work as George Clooney’s worldly-wise love interested in Up in the Air deserves recognition, as does her frantic portrayal of a terrified mother in Orphan (which was ignored by most critics and by Oscar® this year). Of the remaining three nominees, watch out for Penelope Cruz. She’s both pitiful and sexy in Nine -- and that’s a tempting combination for voters.   

Winner:  Mo'Nique            

The 82nd Annual Academy Awards will be televised by ABC on Sunday, March 7, at 6 p.m. Mountain Time. Because Hugh Jackman, who declined to host this year, is such a tough act to follow, two people have been hired to replace him.  Happily, Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin agreed to co-host, so we can expect an entertaining evening. If all else fails, Steve promises to play his banjo!

(Article also appears in The Pueblo Chieftain of March 4, 2010.)