I'm not feeling as eager or as confident as usual this year about betting on who will win the Academy Awards,  probably because some classy entries like Moonlight Mile, Nicholas Nickleby and Rabbit-Proof Fence have been scratched from the Oscar® race. However, during the past seven years, when it comes to predicting winners in six key categories, I’ve maintained a batting average of over 50 percent. Who knows? Maybe my luck will hold out once more – so looking through a very foggy crystal ball, here goes:

BEST PICTURE 

Nominees: Chicago, The Hours, The Pianist, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Gangs of New York

Prediction:  CHICAGO

Preference:  LOTR: THE TWO TOWERS

Comments: Don’t get me wrong. As the world’s most avid fan of movie musicals (you can look it up), I’m ecstatic about the success of Chicago and would love to see a musical win Best Picture. If Chicago dances away with that honor, it would be the first one to do so since way back in the 1960s (Oliver). Still, for sheer spectacle and heart, The Two Towers gets my vote.

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Pedro Almodovar (Talk to Her), Stephen Daldry (The Hours), Rob Marshall (Chicago), Roman Polanski (The Pianist), Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York)

Prediction:  Rob Marshall   

Preference:  Pedro Almodovar  

Comments: With Peter Jackson (The Two Towers) out of the running in this category (why, I ask?), Pedro Almodovar deserves the Best Director Award for his brilliant work on Talk to Her, a film of haunting beauty and operatic execution. Chicago is Rob Marshall’s first feature film – he’ll have other chances. Martin Scorsese, a great filmmaker, misfired with the uneven Gangs in his latest Oscar bid. And Stephen Daldry’s work on The Hours came across as too depressing and artsy for me. The spoiler in this category? Roman Polanski, who chose a subject (the Holocaust) that’s usually a magnet for awards.

BEST ACTOR 

Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Pianist), Nicolas Cage (Adaptation), Michael Caine (The Quiet American), Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York), Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt)

Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis and Jack Nicholson, Tie

Preference: Jack Nicholson

Comments: A tie? Yes. It’s happened before. Katharine Hepburn (The Lion in Winter) and Barbra Streisand (Funny Lady) tied for Best Actress in 1968. As the weary "Schmidt," Nicholson delivers one of the best performances ever filmed. It’s right up there with Paul Newman’s superb acting in The Verdict (1982) and Judy Garland’s poignant turn in A Star Is Born (1954). (Oops – I just remembered neither of them won Oscars for those films.) Still, Day-Lewis has a flashier role in Gangs, one that’s designed to make a bigger impression on Academy voters. That said, I can’t help worrying about how well-liked Michael Caine is. People might vote for him just to hear another one of his witty acceptance speeches.

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Salma Hayek (Frida), Nicole Kidman (The Hours), Diane Lane (Unfaithful), Julianne Moore (Far from Heaven), Renee Zellweger (Chicago)

Prediction: Nicole Kidman

Preference: Diane Lane

Comments: Sometimes the Academy rewards a nominee who should have won the previous year. I think that might happen again this time, resulting in an Oscar for Nicole Kidman, who gave a much better performance in Moulin Rouge (2001) than in The Hours. Besides, Academy members probably feel better about voting for Kidman’s famous suicidal author than for Lane’s adulterous housewife – even though Lane’s sexy performance surpasses all others in this category. However, Renee Zellweger bothers me. She could cross the finish line first as part of a Chicago sweep. Although I don’t believe Salma Hayek has a chance, I wouldn’t be disappointed if she won for her fiery interpretation of artist Frida Kahlo.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Nominees: Chris Cooper (Adaptation), Ed Harris (The Hours), Paul Newman (Road to Perdition), John C. Reilly (Chicago), Christopher Walken (Catch Me If You Can).

Prediction: Paul Newman

Preference: Paul Newman

Comments: I admit this is wishful thinking on my part, but Paul Newman deserves to win. Okay, he already earned one Oscar (The Color of Money), but he failed to receive an Academy Award for the finest performance of his career (The Verdict), so the Academy owes him one. To me, Newman’s multi-layered portrayal of an Irish-American mob boss in Road to Perdition emerges as the "class" of this category. If I had to make a second choice, it would be the wonderful Christopher Walken, who turns "enabling" into an art form as the misguided father in Catch Me If You Can.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Kathy Bates (About Schmidt), Queen Latifah (Chicago), Julianne Moore (The Hours), Meryl Streep (Adaptation), Catherine Zeta-Jones (Chicago)

Prediction: Catherine Zeta-Jones

Preference: Catherine Zeta-Jones

Comments: Zeta-Jones, a force of nature as Chicago’s Velma, sings, dances, acts up a storm – and all that jazz. My biggest worry in this category? That Zeta-Jones and Queen Latifah might split the vote, ending up with zilch for both of them. If that happens, either Kathy Bates or Meryl Streep should be victorious.

We’ll find out who takes home those coveted golden trophies on Sunday, March 23. With Steve Martin hosting the televised 75th Annual Academy Awards® Ceremony, it promises to be a fun show to watch – no matter who wins.

(Article also appeared in The Pueblo Chieftain, March 23, 2003.) 

Update -- March 24: Predictions for Best Picture, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actress were accurate, but Roman Polanski won Best Director, Adrien Brody for Best Actor, and Chris Cooper for Best Supporting Actor. 

Read Betty Jo's interview with Oscar®.