Like most movie fans, I breathed a sigh of relief when the strike by the Writers Guild of America was settled -- and just in the nick of time, enabling the 80th Annual Academy Awards Ceremony to proceed with all the glamour and glitz we expect. Many of the films nominated this year are bleak enough, so not having a star-studded Oscars® telecast would be almost too much to bear. The road leading to the presentation of those coveted golden statuettes featured almost as much suspense and conflict as the films under consideration. Fortunately, the traditional show will go on, and I’m happy to accept the challenge of predicting Oscar® winners in the six key categories below. Will these current picks match my five-out-of-six record from last year? We'll find out on Sunday, February 24.    

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood

My Prediction:  No Country for Old Men

My Preference:  Juno

Comments:  With No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood tied for the most nominations, each is poised to take home the gold. However, the former movie has struck a chord with audiences and critics all over the nation, so it’s more likely to win -- despite one of the most irritating endings ever filmed. Both motion pictures explore greed while featuring lots of violence, but No Country tosses in one of the most menacing villains of all time -- and that might tip the scale with Academy voters. Personally, I’m still fuming over no spot given to Hairspray, which I thought was the best movie of the year. Of the five nominees in this category, I prefer Juno, the only one with entertainment as its main goal. Although it’s about a teenage pregnancy, the theme is done with humor and heart. I’ve already seen it twice -- and can hardly wait to check it out again! Michael Clayton, an exceptional legal thriller, would be my second choice.

WINNER:  No Country for Old Men

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood), Ethan Coen and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men), Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton), Jason Reitman (Juno), Julius Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)

My Prediction:  Paul Thomas Anderson and the Coen Brothers (tie)

My Preference:  Jason Reitman

Comments:  Yes, a tie is possible, especially in this category.  Paul Thomas Anderson’s film boasts a later release date, and a win could boost its box office appeal. (Never underestimate the business aspect of the Oscars®.) Besides, he did a masterful job helming this epic film based on Upton Sinclair’s Oil! Although  Jason Reitman gets my personal vote for his sensitive and spirited direction of Juno, a win by Tony Gilroy or Julian Schnabel would not disturb me. When you watch Michael Clayton and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, you know great directors are at work.

WINNER:  The Coen Brothers

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age), Julie Christie (Away from Her), Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose), Laura Linney (The Savages), Ellen Page (Juno)

My Prediction:  Julie Christie

My Preference:   Marion Cotillard or Ellen Page

Comments:  Guess who’s missing from this category? Angelina Jolie, who gave one of the best performances of the year as the widow of murdered journalist Daniel Pearl. Still, these nominated actresses deserve recognition, of course. Because Julie Christie has received practically every critical award so far, I’m jumping on the bandwagon and predicting her as the winner. Although she’s quite touching and poignant as a victim of Alzheimer’s Disease, I believe Marion Cotillard and Ellen Page gave better performances. Cotillard  convinced me she was the legendary Edith Piaf -- and at different ages. She also did the most effective lip synching since Susan Hayward mouthed Jane Froman’s singing in With a Song in My Heart. Regarding the delightfully talented Page, I found her absolutely perfect as a pregnant teenager who’s more mature than the adults around her. But don’t count out Cate Blanchett. She’s extremely powerful in her second portrayal of Queen Elizabeth I.

WINNER:  Marion Cotillard 

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: George Clooney (Michael Clayton), Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood), Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd), Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah), Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)

My Prediction:  Daniel Day-Lewis

My Preference:  Daniel Day-Lewis

Comments:  A sure thing if there ever was one! Daniel Day-Lewis is so good that George Clooney has already conceded this category to him. I never thought I would support anyone over Johnny Depp (be still my heart), who happens to be my favorite actor. But Day-Lewis simply transforms himself -- body and soul -- into the character of a ruthless oil tycoon who’s spellbinding to watch and horrifying to contemplate.

WINNER: Daniel Day-Lewis

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford), Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men), Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson’s War), Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

My Prediction:  Javier Bardem

My Preference:  Tom Wilkinson

Comments:  Academy voters love villains, and I can’t deny that Javier Bardem certainly deserves praise for his frightening portrayal of the merciless killer in No Country for Old Men. He’s like Frankenstein with a cattle gun! It’s a rather one-note role, though, so I think Tom Wilkinson should win for his more nuanced work as an attorney who finally goes bonkers in Michael Clayton. Veteran actor Hal Holbrook could be the sleeper here.

WINNER: Javier Bardem

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There), Ruby Dee (American Gangster), Saoirse Ronan (Atonement), Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone), Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)

My Prediction:  Ruby Dee 

My Preference:  Tilda Swinton

Comments: Octogenarian Ruby Dee surely has many, many fans among Academy voters, and most of them will probably vote for her as a tribute to her long acting career. Granted, she emerged as the best thing about American Gangster. But it was a small part in a sprawling movie, which is also true for Cate Blanchett (two nominations this year!), who changed gender and came across as the most believable of the numerous actors playing Bob Dylan in I’m Not There, a movie I still don’t understand. To me, the best of the bunch is Tilda Swinton. Simply thinking about her morally-challenged character in Michael Clayton gives me chills. When this ambitious woman falls apart at the end of the film, I found it to be the most satisfying movie scene of the year.

WINNER: Tilda Swinton    

The 80th Academy Awards Ceremony, hosted for the third time by Jon Stewart of The Daily Show, will be televised by ABC on Sunday, February 24, at 5 p.m. Pacific Time. Regardless of who wins the golden statuettes or how long the show runs, I’ll be glued to my TV screen -- along with millions of other movie fans.

(Article also published in The Pueblo Chieftain on 2/24/08.)