Gazing into my trusty crystal ball to predict this year's Academy Award winners in the important categories of Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress, I find my predictions and preferences fail to match up in every category except one. Read on, dear visitor, for my reactions concerning these key Oscar® races.        

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: Babel, The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine, Letters from Iwo Jima, The Queen.

My Prediction: The Departed.

My Preference: Little Miss Sunshine.

Comments:  Although the film with the most nominations usually wins Best Picture, I’m not so sure Babel -- with seven -- can pull it off this time. Difficult to follow because of its loosely connected four stories, this intense movie is an ambitious effort about decisions made by people from various cultures when placed in desperate situations. It’s not an easy film to watch. In contrast, Little Miss Sunshine offered viewers the most fun at the movies last year, even though dealing with the serious problems of a quirky family on an outrageous road trip. Still, comedies seldom win in this category, so either The Departed, a riveting crime thriller, or Letters from Iwo Jima, an amazing World War II movie told from the Japanese viewpoint, will probably receive the Oscar®.       

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Martin Scorsese (The Departed), Alejandro González Iñárritu (Babel), Clint Eastwood (Letters from Iwo Jima), Stephen Frears (The Queen), Paul Greengrass (United 93)

My Prediction:  Martin Scorsese for The Departed.

My Preference:  Martin Scorsese for The Departed.

Comments:  I sincerely hope Academy voters FINALLY give Scorsese an Oscar®!  He’s been nominated in the directing category six times now – besides The Departed, Scorsese earned nods for Raging Bull, The Aviator, Gangs of New York, Goodfellas and The Last Temptation of Christ. Because Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, who helmed Little Miss Sunshine, are missing as nominees here (go figure!), I’m lending my full support to Scorsese. Exploring issues of loyalty and betrayal, his gritty The Departed succeeds in drawing viewers into its violent world of gangsters and cops, many who aren’t what they seem. This is one of Scorsese’s most fascinating movies; it makes Goodfellas look like a Mother Goose tale. The spoiler? Clint Eastwood, as usual. His later release of the incredible Letters from Iwo Jima might upset Scorsese’s best chance for a win in a long time.   

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Penelope Cruz (Volver), Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal), Helen Mirren (The Queen), Meryl Streep (Devil Wears Prada), Kate Winslet (Little Children).

My Prediction:  Helen Mirren for The Queen.

My Preference:  Judi Dench for Notes on a Scandal.

Comments:  Mirren emerges as the closest to a sure thing in this Oscar® competition -- or in any to date, for that matter. She’s won almost every award possible for her brilliant performance as Queen Elizabeth II during the aftermath of Princess Diana’s death. But that could be a problem. Perhaps Academy voters, tired of hearing “And the Best Actress Award goes to Helen Mirren,” might decide to cause a stir by choosing someone else. If so, Judi Dench could go home with another Oscar® (she already owns a Best Supporting Actress statuette for Shakespeare in Love). That would make me very happy, for I consider Dench’s absolutely fearless work as the jealous, blackmailing friend in Notes on a Scandal the best of the bunch. I know what you’re thinking -- what about Meryl Streep? Well, if Oscars® were given for the most entertaining performance of the year, her comic turn as the boss from hell would win for sure.

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond), Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson), Peter O'Toole (Venus), Will Smith (Pursuit of Happyness), Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland).

My Prediction:  Forest Whitaker for The Last King of Scotland.

My Preference:  Will Smith for The Pursuit of Happyness.

Comments: Whitaker simply transformed himself into the volatile Idi Amin for his acclaimed performance in The Last King of Scotland. However, I think Smith’s less flamboyant portrayal of a struggling and determined homeless father deserves recognition for its sensitivity and inspiration. Still, if the sentimental favorite Peter O’Toole, who’s been nominated eight times, wins in this category, it wouldn’t disturb me. After all, his splendid work in such films as Lawrence of Arabia, The Stunt Man, Lion in Winter and My Favorite Year certainly qualifies this 75-year-old actor for living-legend status!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine), Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children), Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond), Eddie Murphy (DreamGirls), Mark Wahlberg (The Departed).

My Prediction:  Eddie Murphy for Dreamgirls.

My Preference:  Mark Wahlberg for The Departed.

Comments:  Both Murphy and Wahlberg surprised me with impressive performances in the films they’ve been nominated for. Who knew funnyman Murphy could give such an explosive dramatic performance as the one he delivered in Dreamgirls? And Wahlberg, who portrayed the angry police sergeant in The Departed, made me believe he actually was that character instead of an actor merely playing a role. He even upstaged Jack Nicholson -- something I thought would be impossible for anyone to do.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Adriana Barraza (Babel), Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine), Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal), Jennifer Hudson (DreamGirls), Rinko Kikuchi (Babel).

My Prediction:  Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls.

My Preference:  Abigail Breslin for Little Miss Sunshine or Adriana Barraza for Babel.

Comments:  Fortunately for movie fans, getting voted off TV’s American Idol made it possible for Jennifer Hudson to begin a promising film career. And, wow! Hudson’s powerhouse acting and singing certainly enhanced the movie version of Dreamgirls. Still, my favorite in this category is the delightful 10-year-old Abigail Breslin, who -- if she wins -- would tie Tatum O’Neal (Paper Moon) as the youngest Oscar® winner. My close second choice is Adriana Barraza for her heart-wrenching turn as a woman faced with a troubling dilemma regarding the children under her care in Babel.         

The 79th Academy Awards, hosted for the first time by Ellen DeGeneres, will be telecast by ABC on Sunday, February 25 (2007). With DeGeneres on board, it should be an entertaining night no matter who wins. “Ellen DeGeneres was born to host the Academy Awards,” says producer Laura Ziskin. I agree. With her unique brand of humor, DeGeneres  certainly knows how to move things along, as her successful work hosting the Grammy and Emmy Awards proved.

Be sure to have enough popcorn ready on Sunday, then just sit back and enjoy the show!

Note added 2/26/07: Alan Arkin won for Best Supporing Actor instead of Eddie Murphy. The rest of my predictions came true.