With funnyman Chris Rock on board for the first time as host of the Academy Awards show, this year's ceremony promises to be very different indeed. Noted for his controversial wit and attitude, Rock should bring a breath of fresh air to the proceedings. I understand that some  longstanding traditions will even be challenged -- such as presenting a few golden statuettes to winners while they’re sitting in the audience instead of asking them to come onstage. Wonder if that’s to prevent certain people from climbing over the seats like Roberto Benigni did when he scrambled energetically to the stage for his 1999 Life Is Beautiful Oscar?

No matter what the format, the Academy Awards Ceremony  is all about who wins those coveted Oscars in 24 categories. However, to me, the key awards are for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor -- and I always enjoy making predictions about the outcome of these particular races.  Although I picked all six winners last year, this year’s Oscar competition isn’t that easy to handicap. Nevertheless, here goes.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Million Dollar Baby, Ray, Sideways

My Prediction: The Aviator

My Preference:  None

Comments:  The best movie of 2004 was Hero, a film not eligible for an Oscar because of its previous nomination in the Best Foreign Language Film category. To me, this gorgeous Chinese epic (released in the U.S. during 2004) soared far above the five films nominated for Best Picture. Nevertheless, I’m predicting Martin Scorsese’s glittery cinematic portrait of movie/aviation mogul Howard Hughes, as winner here. Why? Because in the last 20 years, 18 of the Oscar winners have been films with the most nominations -- and The Aviator earned 11 this year, which is four more than its closest rivals Finding Neverland and Million Dollar Baby. However, if enough Academy members feel sentimental when casting their votes, Clint Eastwood’s melodramatic Million Dollar Baby could score a knockout.      

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby), Taylor Hackford (Ray), Mike Leigh (Vera Drake), Alexander Payne (Sideways), Martin Scorsese (The Aviator)

My Prediction:  Clint Eastwood and Martin Scorsese (tie)

My Preference: Martin Scorsese

Comments:  Eastwood vs. Scorsese, the most intense Oscar battle this year, represents a difficult choice for many Academy voters. That’s why I’m predicting a tie -- which has happened before in another category. (Barbra Streisand and Katharine Hepburn shared the Best Actress Oscar in 1968.). Eastwood already owns a Best Director Academy Award for Unforgiven, but Scorsese has gone away empty handed despite nominations for such memorable films as Raging Bull, The Last Temptation of Christ, Goodfellas, and Gangs of New York. While firmly in Scorsese’s corner, I realize there have been other great directors who always failed to take home a “Best Director” Oscar. Alfred Hitchcock, with four nominations, comes to mind as the most glaring oversight. Finally, because he’s much admired even here in the colonies, Britain’s Mike Leigh is the sleeper in this category -- even though his daring Vera Drake didn’t make it to the Best Picture finals.           

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Annette Bening (Being Julia), Catalina Sandino Moreno (Maria Full of Grace), Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake), Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby), Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind).

My Prediction:  Hilary Swank

My Preference:  Annette Bening

Comments: I would love to be wrong about this prediction. Bening delivered one of the best performances ever filmed in her role as a self-absorbed diva of the British stage in the 1930s. Unfortunately, Being Julia received a limited release, so even some Academy voters may have missed this one on the big screen. Besides, Oscar seems to prefer leading ladies who suffer and de-glamorize themselves -- and Swank’s Million Dollar Baby boxer does both. That’s why viewers will probably experience a deja vu moment tonight watching Swank win over Bening -- just like she did in 1999 when her work in Boys Don't Cry received the nod instead of Bening’s brilliant American Beauty turn. Of the other three nominees, Imelda Staunton has the best chance of upsetting Swank or Bening. Her poignant portrayal of Vera Drake still haunts me.          

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda), Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator), Clint Eastwood ( Million Dollar Baby), Jamie Foxx (Ray).

My Prediction: Jamie Foxx

My Preference: Jamie Foxx

Comments:  Even though Johnny Depp is my favorite actor, I want Jamie Foxx to win an Oscar this year for Ray. Now, if Depp had been nominated for Secret Window, that would be a different story. But Depp’s understated acting in Finding Neverland can’t compare to Foxx’s uncanny portrayal of music man Ray Charles. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if Don Cheadle’s powerful performance as a hotel manager who helped save thousands of lives is recognized. I think an Eastwood win -- even though he sheds some tears in Million Dollar Baby -- seems unlikely in this category, and DiCaprio failed to capture the essence of the Howard Hughes I remember from days of yore.       

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Cate Blanchett (The Aviator), Laura Linney (Kinsey), Virginia Madsen (Sideways), Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda), Natalie Portman (Closer).

My Prediction:  Cate Blanchett

My Preference:  Cate Blanchett

Comments:  Before seeing The Aviator, I was convinced no one could do justice to the incomparable Katharine Hepburn. Fortunately, Blanchett simply transformed herself into this iconic actress. She managed to project the same confident aura, and her vocal inflections were perfect. Sophie Okonedo, who showed considerable emotional range as the frightened wife in Hotel Rwanda, would be my second choice. All three remaining actresses also gave outstanding performances. I’ll be happy with any one of these five nominees crowned as Best Supporting Actress.  

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Alan Alda (The Aviator), Thomas Haden Church (Sideways), Jamie Foxx (Collateral), Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby), Clive Owen (Closer).

My Prediction:   Morgan Freeman

My Preference:  Morgan Freeman

Comments:  Hard to believe, but Morgan Freeman -- like Martin Scorsese -- has yet to receive an Oscar. I think he deserved to win in 1995 for The Shawshank Redemption and in 1990 for Driving Miss Daisy, so the Academy owes him big time. I hope his very watchable Million Dollar Baby ex-fighter does the trick this year. Maybe I’m being sacrilegious, but I believe that without Freeman’s soothing  and humanistic narration, Eastwood’s boxing film wouldn’t be a major Oscar contender. That said, Jamie Foxx stole Collateral from megastar Tom Cruise; Clive Owen already won a Golden Globe; and Thomas Haden Church remains the critics’ favorite. The wild card? Alan Alda, whose nomination surprised everyone, but who absolutely nailed the role of a crooked U.S. senator in The Aviator.    

Remember, movie fans, have a bowl of delicious popcorn ready by 5 p.m. (Pacific Time) on Sunday, February 27th. Then settle down in the most comfortable spot on your sofa and turn your television to ABC for the 77th Annual Academy Awards Ceremony. So what if all your favorites don’t win?  Chris Rock’s provocative hosting debut and some unpredictable Oscar moments should make the show worthwhile.

(Added on 2/28/05: Million Dollar Baby won Best Picture and Clint Eastwood received the Best Director Oscar. My other predictions were accurate. For a complete list of winners, go to the Oscar website.)